In order to figure out what to do you first have to figure out what is happening. I've outlined the major events that have already begun which will have the greatest impact on people's lives. How that plays out over the next decade or so will depend on a lot of factors, but some of the likely effects of oil depletion and energy constraint are somewhat predictable. Mostly, the effects will be felt economically. The kinds of employment activities many of us will be doing will probably be the kinds of things we may do now as a hobby.
Economics is really just the system used for taking stuff from the natural world and turning it into usable things for society. What we have now is a system in which the resources and finished products get moved all over the globe and is economical only because we have cheap energy. We currently pay about $2.50 for a gallon and get ten weeks of human labor for that. The lesson we can take from the price explosion of 2008 is that things can slow down quite a bit economically when gasoline reaches about $4.25 a gallon. Things that travel long distances become less competitive even with the advantage of economies of scale. What this likely means whenever that level is reached again is that economies will relocalize. Things that travel thousands of miles to reach stores probably won't make it there when gas is $5.00 a gallon opening up new manufacturing opportunities for Americans who have grown accustomed to seeing "made in wherever" tags on their consumer products.
The relocalization of the global economy is a transition that will take decades to complete. It is at the same time a difficult thing to prepare for because it is not possible to start a business, say, or create networks of people willing to say goodbye to the old way of doing things to start their own local economy. Some of this is happening now on an experimental basis but is still very limited. The fact remains that the corporate structure is difficult for any small operation to compete against. Walmart is the representative species of corporate megalithic capacity. Whenever an operation can take a loss until the competition is squashed then there is no hope. Any small business can only function in a niche and as of now, the small boutique stores with boutique items, and I don't mean luxury items, but things like a bar of soap made in your neighborhood, has to depend on those with enough money and willingness to pay more in order to stay in business. If you want locally made underwear I would say you are simply out of luck.
I suspect that, as the number of unemployed in the U.S. remains high, the relocalization effort will gain some traction. A number of other conditions would have to come into being, though, for it to represent a more or less permanent transition. For one, the price of imported goods would have to rise considerably before someone in the U.S. could earn a living making the things we use regularly. Another factor in all of this is that, once the things we pay relatively little for now become very expensive as the globalized economy convulses and dies, we will need to have the skills to make the stuff we need. Another related condition is that capital would have to be willing to move to finance local production of goods, something it hasn't been willing to do for many decades. The effect of this will be a greater portion of people's income will be used to cover the basics like food, clothing, and transportation than is the case now. Where people decide to cut their budgetary corners is what will shape the economy of the future. Much of what people buy now may not have much of a future if people decide they don't need them or can't afford them.
Some of this has already begun. What can be observed over the past couple of years as the financial meltdown stormed over the planet is that people are buying and driving less. This is primarily true in the Western countries. Places like India and China are a seperate case, but the richest nations are undergoing a process of scaling back their consumption and losing financial credibility. I expect this process to continue for the next two decades. It may be gradual, or it may be rapid. Or it will be gradual and punctuated by crises. Who knows? It's safe to say that the decline of economic, political, and military power is in the cards for the U.S. and Europe for the foreseeable future. Given this, the likelihood of another crisis in the financial markets appears great as the source of risk and instability has not been dealt with by the leaders of men. As resources become scarce, a zero sum resource game will dominate the markets functionality and wreak havoc on distribution, something the market doesn't do so much of anyway.
Making due with less is the new trend. Eventually, people will make more with their hands, grow more of their own food, and repair things rather than throw them away. These are likely to be the leading indicators of the localization transition. There is plenty more to this story. We are heading into an accelerated phase of imperial decline. All of the arrangments of daily life will change somehow. Detaching from the sinking ship called the status quo is an important first step in adapting to the new way of life.
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