To think in a richer and more complex way about this series of problems that ultimately defy solutions, it is useful to consider them as dimensions of an historical web of events that follows a logic that may or may not be fully discernible. Furthermore, it would be useful to think about the future as a matter of adaptation to new conditions that will overwhelm the conditions we currently experience over time and in ways that will be at once unpredictable but not unexpected. Somehow, to think of the subject of oil depletion, say, or of climate change, as problems with solutions misses something fundamental. A solution implies fixing something that allows you to continue more or less on the path you were on. What I am talking about requires the surrender of certain foundational expectations, the willingness to give up cherished identities, and to engage in the deeper task of transforming the civilization into a project that can be maintained indefinitely.
The evidence for the need to massively scale down the activities of humanity into something much less extravagant is convincing to me. I know that ultimately fossil fuel is finite and subject to depletion. I know that ultimately the industrial economy runs on fossil fuel and that there is no viable replacement fuel to run it on. Certainly there is more to it than this and objections to even these facts will ring throughout the public discourse even as it becomes obvious (which it is not as of now). The depletion of fossil fuels will have impacts throughout the world but the place that may experience the hardest fall is the Western economies, especially the United States. As the cache of past dominance gets drained, and the ability of the United States to command the world's resources, it's wealth will be drained along with it. Ultimately, the U.S. came to it's superpower status as an oil power and everything has been constructed with the use of oil in mind. It also best represents the extravagance that must be scaled down, a subject I'll return to in a little bit.
Another ultimate that fits into the panoply of ultimates is that climate change represents the greatest ultimate threat to continued civilization as an ongoing concern. The disruptions promised by climate scientists if the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere continues unabated are certain to be too much for a civilization which has developed only in the stable climate of the holocene. This does not necessarily mean the end of all human beings. Humans evolved during other climate disruptions of greater or lesser severity and lived to tell the tale. But they didn't have the large settlements that came later with the advent of agriculture. Nor were they able to increase their numbers to more than a few million worldwide for millenia. From where I'm sitting, it is fat consolation to think that humanity will continue in the event of catastrophic global climate change while my peers are looking to upscale their SUV's.
The final ultimate, and the best definition of what I mean by extravagant, is the concept of ecological overshoot. Used, of course, in ecology, this is the best way to flesh out the remaining ultimate. Ecological overshoot is pretty basic. When bunnies, for example, outstrip the food supply through population growth, then a correcting mechanism known as die off brings the population back into equilibrium with the supply of food. The overshoot analysis is trickier when applied to people because of their capacity to enhance biological productivity through the use of reason. But that very same use of reason contends that ecological overshoot still applies to the human animal due to natural limitations of the physical world. Does photosynthesis, for example, have an upper limit? Does tinkering with the upper limit have consequences for the biosphere that we hadn't considered when we began tinkering? Humans are only as good as the food supply. It makes us no different from the rest of the animal kingdom.
Food isn't the only constraint in assessing ecological overshoot. Waste, what one is often disinclined to think about, can overwhelm the population. Seems quite obviuos with bunnies given their high production rates of waste material. But it equally applies to carbon dioxide, one of the waste materials of the fossil fuel economy. It raises an important issue; natural wastes in themselves are not undesirable. It is the overabundance of waste that is the concern. Nature has measurable recycling rates of waste and if that is overwhelmed the excess is called pollution. Besides food, it is another factor to consider in the population overshoot construct. We have simply overwhelmed the natural world with our presence and our lifestyle. Our task is to find the equilibrium and stick with it.
I can no longer keep my mouth shut. I want to know what do you propose we do about this? How can I as a consumer reduce my dependence on oil. Here is the problem as I see it. Human beings are essentially selfish creatures. We don't as a rule see ourselves as interconnected. People don't think about bigger things such as dying and leaving the planet a better place for our children. Most people are just thinking about how to get ahead in life, live the good life for themselves and maybe their children. They don't think about the fact that we are all connected in some way. Generally, the layman is not going to consider the things that you are talking about here.
ReplyDeleteI would love to buy the ecologically conscious product. Heck I would love to drive a Prius and eat only grassfed free range organic meat. However, those things just are not cost effective on a limited budget. We all recycle because it makes us "feel good". Then we are doing our part for the environment. Those that can afford to shop at a Trader Joe's or some other specialty market do so because it feels good to do it. But does that have real impact on the environment? Does a warm fuzzy feeling constitute a real contribution to the environment and lessening our dependence on oil?
Nobody stops to consider that their prepackaged goodies come at a high environmental cost. Huge amounts of rain forest are being taken away so that companies like Cargill can grow palm oil trees. Palm oil is cheap and it has a long shelf life. How does this impact the environment? It really is a question of what is the bottom line for both companies and consumers. The bottom line is the all mighty dollar. As long as the big companies can make a buck in the short term who cares about what kind of planet our children will inherit?
Very few people actually consider how their bottled water affects people in other countries. Why is it that we are willing to pay more per liter for bottled water than we do for gas? And, we never consider if the poorest of the poor have clean water to drink.
Bottom line enough with the numbers, my friend, show me some real solutions.
Thank you for not keeping your mouth shut any longer. I think you've put you're finger on the heart of the problem. We humans aren't concerned with the future all that much unless it involves ourselves and those close to us. However, like I said in this post, I don't think it is useful to think about solutions as though the system is something we can gerryrig to suit our needs. People will have to adapt to what is coming down the pike. With that in mind I am leading up to solutions and strategies eventually. For now I think it's important to sketch out the entire scope of problems before I get into ideas and practical measures that all sorts of people around the world have about adapting to all of this.
ReplyDeleteI see the future as a series of trade-offs. It is about determining what is the best of what we have and finding ways to maintain it. It is about being prepared on an individual level to take care of yourself and those who depend on you to live the best life you can in the face of massive change in ways that you or anybody else will be able to control. But you might be surprised at what you can do now without buying a Prius or eating organic food. It's about deciding what is necessary and then cutting out what is unnecessary. If you think that what I describe in this blog has any merit at all, then you could come up with strategies yourself and share them with me and whoever else looks at this blog because that is ultimately how it's gonna work. It requires helping each other.